4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 27 July 2024
⏱️ 66 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Together with Mark Rzepczynski we discuss how the activist treasury issurance of more bills than coupons have provided more quantitative easing and why we are seeing a decline in concern for inflation and rising interest rates. Mark also shares key insights to why building a system is more important than building models and what you can use a backtest for, and we discuss whether investors should focus mostly on stocks or bonds in their portfolio. We also discuss why you should include trend following in your portfolio and ways to assess macro economic risk, how AI will impact the trend following industry, how the hot hand fallacy applies to investing and much more.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:54 - If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be?
03:17 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:20 - Bills = money?
09:59 - A declining concern for rising rates and inflation?
13:38 - Industry performance update
16:01 - Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower??
26:10 - "I've never seen a bad backtest"
31:56 - Simplicity vs. complexity
35:26 - Stocks or bonds - what should you prefer?
40:18 - Why you should have trend following in your portfolio
48:50 - How to assess true macro economic risk
53:33 - Machine learning and AI in systematic trading
01:00:22 - The hot hand fallacy
Copyright
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
0:33.7 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Mark Recibsinski and I, Niels Castro-Larsen, where each week we take the polls of the global markets through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
0:39.3 | Mark, it is great to be back with you this week. How are you doing? Not too bad. Not too bad. |
0:44.5 | Middle of the summer, you know, we'll probably sort of save my town. I think more people are going out on vacation or they should be starting in August and the place empties out. So that's when I like |
0:51.4 | my town the most. It's relatively empty. It's pretty empty here in Zook |
0:55.9 | at the moment, I have to say. But, you know, what date is, it is the day where the Olympic starts, |
1:01.9 | which is very exciting in many ways. And so I obviously hope you are ready for it. I don't know |
1:10.3 | if you are interested in these type of events, |
1:13.1 | but it inspired me a little bit to bring up a kind of a surprise question for you, Mark, |
1:19.4 | because I know you're up for it. |
1:20.6 | Okay. |
1:21.3 | So the silly and surprise question is, |
1:26.1 | if trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would you say it is? |
1:34.1 | Ooh, that's a good one. So if it was the winter Olympics, then it would be, you know, those guys who do |
1:43.8 | this ski jumping, where it could would be you know those those guys who do this ski jumping |
1:44.8 | that uh where it could be you know either graceful or the agony of defeat uh and a crash uh |
1:53.8 | because we see these ups and downs with managed futures now in um in summer olympics it's not really, it's harder to say, but I think it's closer to more long distance running as opposed to a sprint. |
2:09.9 | You know what? It's so funny. I mean, when I thought of this silly question a few minutes ago, I didn't necessarily have a good answer myself. |
2:18.2 | So I asked Chad GBT because I thought, who else to ask? |
2:22.3 | But actually, you're spot on. |
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