4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 8 November 2023
⏱️ 56 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini
07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?
11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?
14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?
19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?
25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis
29:08 - Will AI save us?
32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth
36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this...
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
0:00.0 | I mean, certainly as rates are going up, that we should be getting more demand for bonds, |
0:12.3 | but when the velocity of move is so intense to the upside, nobody really wants to jump in there, |
0:19.7 | they can really spike up to levels that cause |
0:22.4 | a credit crunch in a recession. |
0:24.0 | I'm hoping that the economy will slow some without an outright recession and that inflation |
0:30.8 | will continue to moderate and that will stabilize the situation. |
0:35.9 | But we are seeing aspects of a debt crisis which are very unsettling. |
0:41.7 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their |
0:46.8 | experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, |
0:58.2 | so you can take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level. |
1:02.8 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
1:06.3 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, |
1:10.5 | and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. |
1:15.5 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, |
1:19.7 | and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product |
1:25.2 | before you make investment decisions. |
1:27.6 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
1:37.4 | Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses |
1:41.6 | on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
1:45.5 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting as well as intellectually challenging, |
1:51.4 | but also very important given where we are in the global economy and the geopolitical cycle. |
1:58.3 | We want to dig deep into the minds of some of the most prominent experts to |
... |
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