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Top Traders Unplugged

SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 12 November 2023

⏱️ 57 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?

04:24 - A precursor for the conversation

05:21 - Industry performance update

07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective

11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"

16:06 - The results of the paper

21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference

24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted

26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?

33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?

35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?

37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change

42:52 - Different people, different perspectives

46:39 - Doing what happens next

48:12 - Best...

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing

0:07.2

and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.

0:13.2

Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.

0:26.6

Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with Katie Kaminsky and I, Neil's Castroblassen, where each week we take the polls of the global markets

0:31.2

through the lens of a rules-based investor. Kate, it is wonderful to be back with you this week.

0:37.4

How are you doing? What's

0:38.3

happening where you are in the world? Well, things are good, Niels. I mean, it's, you know,

0:43.6

turning to fall slash winter here in Boston. I mean, we had the time change. It feels very hard.

0:48.9

But, you know, it feels like winter now. You know, just, you know, feels like it's time to start skiing. I guess, I don't know.

0:56.9

You know, it's so interesting. So today we're recording, I'm actually in Denmark. And I remember this

1:03.0

summer that people were complaining about all the drought and the worst drought we'd seen in, I don't

1:10.1

know how many decades,

1:11.4

and the farmers, you know, were very worried about their crop.

1:15.8

And then I switched on the news yesterday, and they're now pretty much on course for the

1:21.6

wettest year ever on record. Now, it tells you a little bit about how bad the weather has

1:26.2

been since the summer, but it also tells you a little bit about how bad the weather has been since the summer,

1:33.7

but it also tells you a little bit about, I think, sometimes these narratives, how strong they can be, and you kind of think, wow, this must be something dramatic that's causing all this drought.

1:39.9

And then you find yourself that actually, this might be the wettest year and 2019 was the second

1:45.7

wettest year.

1:47.3

So maybe it's not that dry after all.

1:50.2

Well, this is a good point.

1:51.4

I mean, that's this idea of short-term data versus long-term data, right?

...

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