Gary Shilling: What Is the Consensus View Getting Wrong?

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business, Investing, News, Business News

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 27 June 2021

⏱️ 38 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The Interview: Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to evaluate the health of the economy and how it impacts the future path of assets such as bonds, real estate, and stocks. Shilling notes that the consensus view—that the economy is going to re-open very rapidly, that inflation is going to come roaring back, and that interest rates will go through the roof—contradicts the lessons he has learned across his storied career in financial markets. Shilling argues that the four-decade-long trend of declining interest rates on U.S. Treasurys will continue, and he shares with Harrison several investment ideas in commodities and bonds that allow investors to be cautious without being actively bearish. Shilling and Harrison also discuss trends such as working-from-home, the residential real estate boom, and the savings glut in Asian countries. Recorded on April 21, 2021. Key learnings: Shilling is very bullish on bonds and views the recent rise in commodity prices with some skepticism. He has his eye on small positions and is only willing to size-up his trades once he has seen confirmation of his thesis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:24.0	Go to Salesforce.com forward slash 360 to learn more.
0:30.0	Welcome to Investment Ideas. I'm the host today Ed Harrison.
0:55.0	And I have the distinct pleasure of speaking again to Gary Schilling,
0:59.0	who's the president of A Gary Schilling. Gary, welcome to Investment Ideas.
1:04.0	Glad to be with you again, Ed. Thanks.
1:07.0	Welcome back, I should say. And you know, for those of you who are watching who don't know your work,
1:14.0	why don't you give us a brief explanation of the various things that you do at your company?
1:20.0	Well, we're economic consultants and also registered investment advisors.
1:24.0	We eat our own cooking. We invest, according to our views.
1:28.0	We start with the aggregate economy.
1:32.0	We look at the political, the economic, the financial spheres, develop a forecast
1:38.0	and then see what investment themes drop out of that.
1:41.0	And they can involve any number of vehicles, stocks, long or short bonds, currencies, commodities,
1:49.0	whatever seems to be the best way of making money.
1:53.0	And I've always been guided by two very fundamental principles.
1:57.0	One is that history is relevant, that human nature doesn't change very rapidly,
2:03.0	if at all. So people react to similar circumstances and similar ways.
	...

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