Frederick Kagan on Ukraine: Where Things Stand—and the Stakes for the Future

Conversations with Bill Kristol

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🗓️ 26 October 2022

⏱️ 64 minutes

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Summary

Eight months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? According to Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Ukraine’s stunning battlefield achievements have dramatically altered the dynamic of the war. As he puts it, Russians no longer have the ability to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine. That’s over. Russians have fundamentally gone over to the defensive. But serious challenges remain. Ukraine can reconquer or secure several strategically significant territories, without which Ukraine will remain highly vulnerable to future Russian attacks. The questions emerging from the war are momentous: What will come of Putin’s nuclear threats? Is there an “off ramp” from the conflict? Are we in a new Cold War? Kagan’s thoughtful examination of the present situation and reflection on its consequences help us see how a Ukrainian victory is necessary for the free world.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hi, I'm Bill Crystal. Welcome back to Conversations. I'm very pleased to be joined again today by Fred Kagan,
0:21.0	Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute,
0:25.5	historian who actually got his degree on, I think, Soviet and Russian military history,
0:30.1	which is quite relevant to our discussion today about Russia and Ukraine. Obviously, Fred's
0:35.8	been a major contributor to the public debate for over 25 years on all matters, political, political
0:43.5	military and political military and foreign policy. And it works closely with the Institute
0:49.7	and study of war, which I'm actually proud to be on the board of, on their invaluable daily
0:56.0	Ukraine updates, which you should all get, the maps and the detailed account of what's happening
1:01.2	on the ground and also in the information sphere and a lot of good stuff there. And also the
1:06.4	critical studies project today, critical threats project. Fred is now putting out a daily Iran update.
1:12.1	Is that right? Yeah. Demonstrations there. We'll have to, we had a very good Iran discussion with
1:16.4	Ray Taka, a couple of weeks ago, but we'll have to do another, to an Iran discussion with you,
1:20.4	is that that's not going away either, right? Yes. No, no, no, that's, that's generally pretty good
1:25.9	news, I think. Good. Okay. Well, we need, we need good news. It's tough for the people there,
1:31.6	but it's obviously good news. Yeah. And we did a conversation on Russia and Ukraine, almost exactly,
1:36.4	I think six months ago, at the end of April, which I just looked at last night and stands up very
1:40.6	well. You were out full of Russia's ability to pull itself back together and have a successful
1:46.7	offensive. You were very impressed with what you created done. And I think you sort of thought it
1:51.0	would be about where it is now. So where are we? I mean, where are we in the war? How is Ukraine
1:56.4	doing? What can they do? What should we be doing? And then we can talk a little much more. I think
1:59.6	about someone more about Russia and Putin, which I feel like is the under explored or side of the
2:05.1	equation perhaps in these days? Well, thanks for having me back, Bill. It's always good to see and
	...

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