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The Ezra Klein Show

Freaked Out? We Really Can Prepare for A.I.

The Ezra Klein Show

New York Times Opinion

Society & Culture, Government, News

4.611K Ratings

🗓️ 21 March 2023

⏱️ 94 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

OpenAI last week released its most powerful language model yet: GPT-4, which vastly outperforms its predecessor, GPT-3.5, on a variety of tasks. GPT-4 can pass the bar exam in the 90th percentile, while the previous model struggled around in the 10th percentile. GPT-4 scored in the 88th percentile on the LSAT, up from GPT-3.5’s 40th percentile. And on the advanced sommelier theory test, GPT-4 performed better than 77 percent of test-takers. (It’s predecessor hovered around 46 percent.) These are stunning results — not just what the model can do, but the rapid pace of progress. And Open AI’s ChatGPT and other chat bots are just one example of what recent A.I. systems can achieve. Kelsey Piper is a senior writer at Vox, where she’s been ahead of the curve covering advanced A.I., its world-changing possibilities, and the people creating it. Her work is informed by her deep knowledge of the handful of companies that arguably have the most influence over the future of A.I. We discuss whether artificial intelligence has coherent “goals” — and whether that matters; whether the disasters ahead in A.I. will be small enough to learn from or “truly catastrophic”; the challenge of building “social technology” fast enough to withstand malicious uses of A.I.; whether we should focus on slowing down A.I. progress — and the specific oversight and regulation that could help us do it; why Piper is more optimistic this year that regulators can be “on the ball’ with A.I.; how competition between the U.S. and China shapes A.I. policy; and more. This episode contains strong language. Mentioned: “The Man of Your Dreams” by Sangeeta Singh-Kurtz “The Case for Taking A.I. Seriously as a Threat to Humanity” by Kelsey Piper “The Return of the Magicians” by Ross Douthat “Let’s Think About Slowing Down A.I.” by Katja Grace Book Recommendations: The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes Asterisk Magazine The Silmarillion by J. R. R. Tolkien Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected]. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs. “The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Emefa Agawu, Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld, Roge Karma and Kristin Lin. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris and Kate Sinclair. Mixing by Jeff Geld. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Carole Sabouraud and Kristina Samulewski.

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm Ezra Klein.

0:07.0

This is the Ezra Conchell.

0:23.9

So let me start this one by situating us in time.

0:26.8

So we taped this podcast just a few hours after Open-Aid release GPT-4, which is their

0:32.4

most powerful AI language model yet.

0:35.6

The thing that is remarkable here, that I really keep trying to push people to key into,

0:41.2

is how quickly these systems are getting better, how steep the curve of improvement is.

0:46.7

We talk about some benchmarks here on the show, but GPT-4 now passes a bar exam in the

0:51.3

90th percentile, the 90th percentile.

0:54.9

Just sit with that.

0:57.7

We were nowhere near fully understanding what the last generation of these models could

1:01.5

do.

1:02.5

Now we're onto the next one.

1:03.6

And the same is probably going to be true here.

1:05.4

GPT-4, it is extremely powerful.

1:07.6

It is at times a nerving.

1:09.6

We barely understand what it can do or how to use it.

1:13.4

And yet everybody is racing ahead.

1:15.4

GPT-4 also is going to be a toy, a diversion, compared to what we're going to have in

1:20.9

three or five years.

1:23.4

If you heard the commentary I released on AI on the podcast over the weekend, you heard

1:28.2

that what I'm most focused on is how society manages to adapt to the speed at which these

...

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