Forecasting Disaster: A ‘super’ El Niño? And the case for early action
Outrage + Optimism: The Climate Podcast
Persephonica
4.7 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 2 April 2026
⏱️ 37 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
As headlines warn of a possible ‘super El Niño’ later this year, we ask: how do we respond to a warning before it becomes a catastrophe?
The last major El Niño brought record heat, crop failures, flooding and deepening food insecurity across large parts of the world. This time, the question is not only what may be coming, but whether we are any better prepared to act on the warning?
Tom Rivett-Carnac and Paul Dickinson look at what the forecasts do and do not tell us about the climate ahead in 2026, and what it means to prepare for a crisis that is still uncertain, but increasingly hard to ignore.
And in a world of shrinking aid budgets and rising climate risk, they’re joined by Andrew Kruczkiewicz from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and Columbia Climate School - how do you justify spending on a crisis that hasn’t happened yet?
From anticipatory finance and early warning systems to the politics of aid cuts and the difficulty of communicating risk in real time, they explore what climate preparedness looks like when the stakes are already human and immediate.
Learn More:
🔴 Browse the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre’s work on linking climate science and action
🩺 Read the WHO explainer on ENSO and health
🌊 Get up to date on NOAA’s latest ENSO Diagnostic discussion for the clearest official snapshot of what forecasters are currently saying about the chances of El Niño emerging in 2026
🛰️ Explore the World Food Programme’s work on anticipatory action and see their Bangladesh case study to see how it’s used in practice
🎤 Leave us your voice notes and questions for upcoming episodes on SpeakPipe
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Or get in touch with us via this form.
Producer: Ben Weaver-Hincks
Planning: Caitlin Hanrahan
Exec Producer: Ellie Clifford
This is a Persephonica production for Global Optimism and is part of the Acast Creator Network.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello and welcome to outrage and optimism. I'm Tom Rivikarnik. And I'm Paul Dickinson. And sadly, |
| 0:06.9 | Christian is not here. That's right. But this week, as headlines warn of possible Super El Nino later this |
| 0:12.0 | year, we ask what forecasters are actually saying and how we can prepare to act on major events, |
| 0:17.8 | even in the event of uncertainty. And we speak to Andrew Khrushkevich. |
| 0:22.6 | Climate Advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center. |
| 0:26.0 | Thanks for being here. |
| 0:30.7 | Oh boy, we could potentially be looking at a historic El Nino developing as we go through the... |
| 0:36.0 | A weather pattern known as a super El Nino could be upon us later this year, according to |
| 0:40.8 | climate scientists. |
| 0:41.9 | ...feanomen El Nino. |
| 0:43.6 | This year, 2016, would well once the year of a super El Nino can be. |
| 0:48.9 | And judging by the anomalies that we're seeing in the sea surface temperatures, it looks like, |
| 0:52.9 | yes, we are indeed on track. |
| 0:55.0 | Okay, Paul, so there has been a burst of coverage in recent weeks warning of a possible |
| 0:58.9 | super El Nino this year in 26. What is a super El Nino, Paul? |
| 1:03.9 | Well, I'm glad you've asked me, Tom, because I have a fantastic definition, and that is |
| 1:09.2 | that it's the warm phase of the El Niño's Southern |
| 1:12.6 | Oscillation or Enso. It's a large-scale climate pattern centered on the tropical Pacific where |
| 1:17.9 | sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation shift in ways that can influence weather and seasonal |
| 1:23.6 | conditions around the whole world. And I mean, it typically, just in simple terms, it can |
| 1:28.7 | lead to more extreme heat, particularly if it's strong. It doesn't cause the same things everywhere. |
| 1:34.9 | A forecast at El Nino, it doesn't tell you what's going to happen in each country, but you can |
... |
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