Whenever this remarkable historian and I get together, the rules are always the same.

I get to ask five questions.

Any five questions I want.

He has no idea what I'm going to ask, and to be honest, I'm not entirely sure myself.

Stephen Kotkin on Uncommon Knowledge Now.

... Now. Welcome to Uncommon Knowledge.

I'm Peter Robinson.

A senior fellow at the Hoover Institution here at Stanford, Stephen Kotkin represents one of the nation's most accomplished historians and one of its most fascinating analysts.

The author of half a dozen major works of history, Dr. Kotkin is now at work on the third and final volume of his definitive biography of Joseph Stalin.

A new year, a new administration, today, five questions for 2025.

Stephen, let's start with the presidential election. Two arguments. Here's one.

Donald Trump's reelection was a one-off. A weak in Joe Biden remained in the race until he couldn't. He handed the nomination to

an even weaker candidate, Kamala Harris. Trump wins the electoral college and the popular vote,

but you know what? His polls never break 50%. He wins the popular vote, but again, with

a smidgen of under 50%, it's a one-off, a fluke.

Here's the second argument.

This follows analyst Henry Olson.

Exit polls showed that more voters identified themselves

as Republicans than as Democrats

for the first time since 1932.

Donald Trump won a full one-third of the non-white vote,

a historic margin for a Republican.

...