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More or Less

Finding Mexico City’s real death toll

More or Less

BBC

News Commentary, Science, Mathematics, News

4.63.7K Ratings

🗓️ 8 May 2021

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Mexico City’s official Covid 19 death toll did not seem to reflect the full extent of the crisis that hit the country in the spring of 2020 - this is according to Laurianne Despeghel and Mario Romero. These two ordinary citizens used publicly available data to show that excess deaths during the crisis - that’s the total number of extra deaths compared to previous years - was four times higher than the confirmed Covid 19 deaths.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Before this BBC podcast kicks off, I'd like to tell you about some others you might enjoy.

0:05.1

My name's Will Wilkin and I Commission Music Podcast for the BBC.

0:08.7

It's a really cool job, but every day we get to tell the incredible stories behind songs,

0:13.5

moments and movements, stories of struggle and success, rises and falls, the funny, the ridiculous.

0:19.1

And the BBC's position, at the heart of British music

0:21.7

means we can tell those stories like no one else.

0:24.5

We were, are and always will be right there at the centre of the narrative.

0:28.6

So whether you want an insightful take on music right now

0:31.3

or a nostalgic deep dive into some of the most famous and infamous moments in music,

0:36.1

check out the music podcasts on BBC Sounds.

0:39.1

Hello and welcome to more or less. We're the show that tries to make the world add up.

0:44.5

And I'm Tim Harford. This week, we bring you the story of how two people who had never met in

0:50.2

person worked together to find out just how bad things were in Mexico City during the

0:56.2

first wave of the pandemic last spring. In mid-March 2020, Mexico announced its first

1:03.0

official COVID death. A few weeks later, in late May, the total official death toll in the country's

1:10.0

capital was around 1800.

1:12.8

But among data geeks, something didn't sit right.

1:16.1

What we could see in Mexico was testing was really low.

1:20.0

We had a very high fatality rate in Mexico, about 8% compared to 1% in the rest of the world.

1:27.5

Many tests were coming up positive.

1:32.3

This is Lorient Despegale, an economist by day, but by night, something of a data detective.

1:42.4

That high fatality rate wasn't because COVID was more dangerous in Mexico.

...

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