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Wall Street Breakfast

Fed speakers unleashed

Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha

Business News, News, Business, Investing

4.11K Ratings

🗓️ 4 February 2024

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

What will January's blowout jobs report mean for monetary policy? (0:19) Watch the SLOOS report in wake of regional bank jitters. (2:38) Sports books are already Super Bowl 58 winners. (5:45)

Show Notes
Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch
Earnings Week Ahead
Companies with profit warnings after negative earnings season

Episode transcripts seekingalpha.com/wsb
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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's market moving

0:10.4

events along with the weekend's top news and analysis.

0:14.0

Hello, today is Sunday, February 4th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn.

0:19.0

Our top story to look out for this week.

0:21.0

Fed speakers unleashed. Federal Reserve members emerged from the quiet

0:24.6

period following last week's meeting faced with a January blowout jobs report.

0:28.8

Investors will be looking for what it means for rate trajectory with a labor market that added

0:33.3

355,000 to payrolls last month. Fed Chairman Jay Powell appeared to shut the door

0:38.3

on a March rate cut in his press conference saying it was unlikely. The payroll's gain and a rise in average

0:44.1

hourly earnings of 0.6 percent, twice the consensus, would seem to have bolted that

0:48.9

door if not nailed crooked pieces of wood across it with spookly scrawled keep out warnings.

0:53.2

Wells Fargo economists say the employment report clearly reinforces the view that a rate cut

0:58.1

is not coming at the March meeting. The doves on the FOMC should feel comfort in that the

1:02.1

labor market is not on the precipice of a material deterioration in the near term,

1:06.5

while the Hawks likely will feel emboldened to wait for at least a few more inflation data points

1:11.3

to ensure that the inflation genie is back in the bottle. Stephen Blitz inflation data

1:13.4

data points to ensure that the inflation genie is back in the bottle.

1:13.7

Stephen Blitz, economist at Global Data, T.S. Lombard, goes further.

1:18.4

He says a hike won't happen, but the question is worth pondering

1:21.8

based on the idea that sustained growth lays waste to the Fed's

1:25.3

art and defense of 50 basis points as the neutral real funds rate.

1:29.7

If we raise the neutral rate back to 2%, the long-term normal and what forward markets

...

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