Welcome to In Conversation, the regular podcast of E-Sharp magazine.

Go to e-sharp.e. for free access to all our podcast to date.

This is Paul Adamson and I'm in conversation with Mush Dabharalman, Manitin Director and Practice

Head of Europe of the Eurasia Group.

You're quite an expert on Brexit, so it'd be ashamed not to devote the entire podcast to Brexit.

Having said that, things are happening so quickly.

It's only fair to you and to our listeners that we specify, I specify at the outset when this has been recorded.

It is January the 10th, it's late morning, and we'll see about the time this is uploaded on the website where the things have changed

dramatically. But let's push ahead anyway. The government has finally confirmed it will have

this vote on its withdrawal agreement next Tuesday, the 15th January in the House of Commons.

Do you still subscribe to the Conventional View that there is no way that the

Castor Commons will approve this withdrawal agreement? Yes, I do. I think the interesting

question is what the parliamentary arithmetic looks like and does the vote clarify how deep-seated

opposition is both on the government but also the opposition side.

Also for Europe, I think they will be looking to the arithmetic to see if they can clarify

political situation in London and take that into their decision-making going forward.

Until Christmas, the conventional wisdom was that this is made with sort of go to Brussels, quote-unquote, get some new concessions or clarifications at least from EU 27 and then come back and then hold a second vote.

That's still a quite likely scenario?

It is. It is. I think it's clear on the government side their objective is going to be to keep

talking to the Europeans. So even in the event the meaningful vote fails, which I think it will,

I don't think Treaser may or her lead negotiating team, Olly Robbins and Co.

At that stage, you're simply going to give up.

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