Mortgage rates aren’t falling the way buyers expect—and this interview breaks down why “waiting for a crash” may backfire, plus what realistic first-time buyer strategies still work in today’s market.

Zachary Foust explains why mortgage rates haven’t followed Fed cuts the way people assume, and how bond investors, inflation risk, and the mortgage-to-bond “spread” affect what buyers actually pay. He argues a 2008-style housing crash is unlikely without a major inventory surge, and that the kind of crash many buyers hope for would likely come with painful unemployment. The conversation shifts into practical “path of least resistance” moves—like using FHA/USDA/VA and state housing authority assistance, considering townhomes in secondary markets, and paying attention to new construction incentives—while also naming the emotional toll this market is taking on first-time buyers.

“Townhomes aren’t sexy, but they’re affordable to build and they’re cheaper, especially if they’re on the outside of a primary market.” - Zachary Foust

Highlights

• Why aren’t mortgage rates dropping even when the Fed cuts rates?
• What does “quantitative easing” actually mean—and why is it showing up again in 2026?
• If prices did drop 20–50%, what would likely have to happen to unemployment first?
• How can first-time buyers use FHA/USDA/VA and state housing authority programs to lower upfront costs?
• Why are some builders offering major incentives—and why might new construction be a “quiet sale” opportunity?
• What does buying “outside the sun” (secondary markets) look like in real life?

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David Sidoni, the "How to Buy a Home Guy," is a seasoned real estate professional and consumer advocate with two decades of experience helping first-time homebuyers navigate the real estate market. His podcast, "How to Buy a Home," is a trusted resource for anyone looking to buy their first home. It offers expert advice, actionable tips, and inspiring stories from real first-time homebuyers. With a focus on making the home-buying process accessible and understandable, David breaks down complex topics into easy-to-follow steps, covering everything from budgeting and financing to finding the right home and making an offer.

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