Experts Predicted a Recession This Year. How Were They So Wrong?

Plain English with Derek Thompson

The Ringer

News Commentary, News

4.8 • 1.8K Ratings

🗓️ 8 August 2023

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Today’s show is about what I consider the biggest mystery of the U.S. economy. Last year, economic experts predicted a recession in 2023 with more confidence than they’ve predicted any recession in decades. We ended up with what some people are calling immaculate disinflation: an economy with low unemployment, falling inflation, rising real wages, and narrowing inequality. Harvard economist Jason Furman joins the show to talk about why so many economists were so wrong and what their wrongness teaches us about how the economy works. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jason Furman Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:24.4	How Hollywood made the Vietnam War?
0:27.4	Listen on the Big Picture Feed.
0:31.0	Today's show is about what I consider the biggest mystery of the U.S. economy today.
0:37.4	Last year, economic experts predicted a recession in 2023 with more confidence
0:44.2	than they predicted a recession in decades.
0:47.8	And we've ended up with the opposite of a recession.
0:51.6	We've ended up with what some people are calling immatulate disinflation.
0:55.6	That is an economy where inflation is falling,
0:58.4	but unemployment is still historically low.
1:01.4	Real wages are rising, inequality is narrowing.
1:05.4	It's not a perfect economy right now, but it's a pretty good economy.
1:08.8	And it is nothing like the recession that we were essentially promised by experts.
1:15.2	And you go back a bit, go to back to last fall, the fall of 2022.
1:19.6	You do not have to look far and wide to find economic experts
1:23.4	who were practically guaranteeing a recession this year.
1:26.0	Last October, a Bloomberg economic model said
	...

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