You've already touched on the situation in the Pacific and the way in which the war has

obviously weakened the US position in Asia more broadly beyond the Middle East. And there's

been plenty of discussion about whether the US becoming further bogged down in the Middle

East might encourage China to attempt to cross the Taiwan Strait and evade the island.

Do you think that's plausible or do you think it underestimates the incrementalist and cautious

approach of China and that the leadership may well feel that they can buy their time, that they

can integrate Taiwan into mainland China further down the line when the US position

is even weaker and the sort of gravitational pull of China's economy in Asia is even greater

than it already already is.

People are always predicting that China is going to take Taiwan within the next five years

and they haven't been right yet. So I'm certainly not going to join the halls of those who have made those predictions. I think that China has its own

timeline for Taiwan. And I don't think that the U.S., whether the U.S. is bogged down or not is

the deciding factor in whatever they might think is the right call there. I also think that there's

plenty of reasons to think that there's plenty of

reasons to think that this wouldn't be an ideal moment for them to do that. There's been a lot of talk

about, obviously, the military, the generals that have been whatever you want to call it, purged,

caught up in the anti-corruption drive, et cetera. So, you know, there's that factor. But also if you just

look at China's recent policy towards Taiwan, I think, there's that factor. But also if you just look at China's recent policy

towards Taiwan, I think that there's plenty of evidence that they're still relying on the

idea that there could be some sort of political reunification. There was just a high profile

visit by the KMT party leader in Taiwan to mainland China with a lot of talk about Taiwanese people

should be able to say they're proud to be Chinese.

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