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Centre for European Reform podcast

Episode 3: Gridlock in the eurozone

Centre for European Reform podcast

Centre for European Reform

News

4.853 Ratings

🗓️ 20 November 2019

⏱️ 12 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Jean Pisani-Ferry, Professor at the Hertie School of Governance & Sciences Po, and Ángel Ubide, expert on central banking, European affairs, finance, and macroeconomic policy, discuss whether monetary policy has run out of road, or whether there is more that Christine Lagarde can do.

Transcript

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0:00.0

From the Centre for European Reform, this is the CER podcast.

0:04.3

It is a critical moment. If we do not act with urgency, we would then severely undermine the liberal order.

0:17.4

Brexit means Brexit, and we're going to make a success of it.

0:23.7

The wind is back in Europe's sights.

0:27.1

We have now a window of opportunity, but it will not stay open forever.

0:33.8

Hello and welcome to this special series of the Centre for European Reform podcast from our annual Ditchley Conference.

0:39.3

My name is Sam Lowe. I'm a senior research fellow at the CER. As we do every year, we've invited 49 of the world's top economists to gather in this wonderful stately home in the Oxfordshire countryside to discuss some of the biggest issues facing European policymakers.

0:52.3

And we've just ended a session where we've been discussing

0:54.5

the Eurozone. And it got, it's a very interesting discussion, got a bit heated, there are differences

0:58.4

in opinions. And here to just discuss this with me, I have Angell, who Bide, who's an economist, a hedge fund.

1:06.0

I think he's quite well known. If you're listening to this, you probably know who he is. And also Professor Jean Pisani Ferry, who probably doesn't need any further introduction either.

1:13.8

So let's just get straight into this. So the Eurozone has passed the peak of its economic cycle.

1:19.0

Growth is down. Inflation expectations are heading downwards.

1:22.3

And risks to the European economy from Brexit and Trump's trade wars are mounting.

1:26.0

Has monetary policy run out of road or is there

1:28.5

more Lagarde can do?

1:30.3

Well, the situation is that, you know, we're down to a 1% growth in the Eurozone, more or less.

1:37.2

We had much better performance before that was driven by China, that was driven by global

1:42.3

trade. So we've suffered from this external shock.

1:46.0

We're not in a recession, but the risk of a recession is now stronger.

1:52.0

And the question is, what will be the response in case the risk of a recession materialized?

1:59.0

And the Eurozone has relied enormously on the ECB for the last 10 years.

...

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