Lucidity's trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to

displace a ruling power.

So to say war between the U.S. and China is inevitable, would be wrong, but to say that there's a high risk of war between the U.S. and China, if the same historical patterns play out, would be correct.

Hi, and welcome back to the Modern War Institute podcast. I'm John Ambo, editorial director at MWI, and in this episode of the MWI podcast, Captain Jake Moraldi speaks to Dr. Graham

Allison. Earlier this year, Dr. Allison completed his 22-year-long tenure as director of Harvard's

Belfour Center for Science and International Affairs.

His latest book examines the notion of Thucydides' trap and what it means for the possibility

of war between the United States and a rising China.

The title of the book is destined for war.

Can America and China escape Thucydides' trap?

That it takes the form of a question is important because there are a range of complex

factors that will determine whether the two countries will fall into the trap that so many

countries in similar situations have throughout history.

In this fascinating conversation, Dr. Allison examines some of these factors and describes

what he believes to be the most likely driver of conflict in the near term, namely the North Korea Wild Card.

Before we get to the conversation, just a couple quick notes. First, you might also be interested in MWI's other podcast, The Spear.

Each episode features a one-on-one interview with an individual who walks us through an event, a mission, a firefight, a battle, and their role in it.

It's a first-person account of combat, and you can find episodes on the MWI website or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

And second, as always, what you hear in this episode are the views of the participants and don't represent those of West Point, the Army, or any other agency of the U.S. government.

All right, here's Captain Jake Morales, conversation with Dr. Allison, thank you for sitting down and talking to us today. It's a great honor to have you here.

Pleasure to be here.

What I'd like to do up front is talk about some definitions to sort of set the scene for the rest of our conversation.

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