This is Trend Following Radio, where great thinking comes alive.

Nobel Prize winners, legendary traders, bestselling authors, and the pros that know what drive us irrational human beings.

I am your host, Michael Covel, not filtered, raw, honest.

That's my passion.

I have a sneaky suspicion that a lot of you are going to really like this particular conversation.

My guest today is Campbell Harvey, Canadian economists known for his work on asset allocation with changing risk and risk premiums and emerging markets finance.

He's a professor at Duke University as well as a research associate

with the National Bureau of Economic Research in Massachusetts. For those of you that love

the conversation of the bell curve and skew and risk and volatility, Campbell is extremely proficient at really good explanations.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Campbell Hart.

So listen, let me break this apart with you.

You've got this interesting paper that I've come to be aware of called Evaluating Trading Strategies.

And I want to kind of unpack how that started.

And before we get into the trading aspect of that, I wonder if you could use the example that goes into football first and just kind of like let the audience slowly come into

this thinking. Right. So there are plenty of sports examples here too. And maybe football is one of

them where like a team could have many wins in a row or a quarterback, many passes

in a row.

And the issue is, is that due to skill or is it luck or is it a combination?

It's also the case that the quarterback could appear to do quite poorly in not making

that many passes. That doesn't necessarily mean that the quarterback lacks skill. It could just

be bad luck. Again, if you're evaluating in real time, whether the poll, the athlete or not, this

needs to be taken into account. It is the same thing with investment managers, where you can

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