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Michael Covel's Trend Following

Ep. 1127: The Carvana Fantasy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

Michael Covel

Business, Investing

4.6732 Ratings

🗓️ 11 November 2022

⏱️ 20 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Please enjoy my monologue The Carvana Fantasy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show.

To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/

You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms:
Twitter: @covel
Facebook: @trendfollowing
LinkedIn: @covel
Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

This is trend following radio where great thinking comes alive.

0:10.9

Nobel Prize winners, legendary traders, bestselling authors, and the pros that know what drive us irrational human beings.

0:21.0

I am your host, Michael Covel, not filtered, raw, honest.

0:27.4

That's my passion.

0:33.8

Morgan Stanley, one of the two investment banks, the other being Goldman Sachs that was saved

0:41.9

in the fall of 2008 by the Fed and the other powers that be.

0:48.9

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were going the way of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.

0:57.3

Everyone knows it. And then the magic hands stepped in and saved those two particular investment banks. That's a really

1:04.4

shitty, non-capitalistic system. We can all agree. Because if you or I put our capital at play and we do bad,

1:16.6

we mess up, we lose, we're not getting a fucking bailout. So let me give you an example of what

1:24.3

happens when you give a bailout to a shitty investment bank 14 years later.

1:31.3

Just one example.

1:33.3

Carvana, the used car bullshit company that is now imploded.

1:43.3

Morgan Stanley via an analyst named Adam Jonas recommended on February 26th, 2021, that Carvana had a

1:55.0

price target of $420, currently trading at February 26th, 2021 at 283.

2:03.6

So at that point in time, one of Morgan Stanley's magical analyst predicted that the $283

2:12.6

carvana would go to $420.

2:15.8

Roll forward 13 months, March of 2022. That target dropped to 360. Well, the price had

2:24.8

already dropped too, because in March of 2022, March 3rd in particular, Carvano was trading at

2:30.4

$123. That was a drop in 13 months from $283.

2:36.7

But Morgan Stanley still had a target on Carvana of $360.

2:44.1

Now here we go.

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