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Slack.com slash DHQ. This listener says, okay, so one is your podcast taking a gay cultural

pivot. And if so, I'm all for it. And two, everyone knows that St. Paddy's Day is the

straightest holiday of all time. Oh, yeah. Is that? No, St. Paddy's Day is more heterosexual

than the average day. It's the only holiday for which it's true. Then the average day

or the average holiday? The average day. The average day. Like what's the word?

The Thanksgiving is gay. It's a normal day. How gay is the replacement level day? It depends

where you live. Where we live. I live in Hell's Kitchen and you live in Chelsea. So we're

maybe not reliable sources for this. Yeah.

Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Drug. I'm Nate Silver. And

this is Model Talk. There are 20 days until Election Day. And the 4CAST shows that Democrats

have a 61% chance of keeping the Senate and Republicans have a 75% chance of winning

the House. Those numbers have been moving around a little bit, a little bit more than

usual over the past month. Yeah, there's been a shift where the GOP. There has been.

Just addressed that up front. Why has there been a shift towards Republicans in the 4CAST?

I think both in generic ballot polling and maybe more pronouncedly in state by state

polling. So the generic ballot has moved back to basically a tie. And remember that's

among all polls. If you shift it for likely voters, probably leans GOP at this point. Meanwhile,

...