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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Does Running For President Always Help Your Career?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.620.6K Ratings

🗓️ 26 July 2021

⏱️ 62 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Why am I so zoomed in?

0:02.0

That's not what you will look like.

0:04.2

It's just a, I guess, that we can all see each other.

0:06.6

Okay.

0:07.6

I have more of a zoomed out face, you know?

0:10.5

It's a little more flattering.

0:12.4

Your best side is when you're very, very small.

0:15.2

Yeah, very zoomed out.

0:16.9

I am best video not on a Monday morning, so.

0:21.0

Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast.

0:31.6

I'm Gaelin Drug.

0:33.0

If you're still wondering what went wrong with polling in 2020, we might have some answers

0:38.9

for you today.

0:40.5

Last week, the American Association for Public Opinion Research released a comprehensive

0:44.7

report addressing why we saw a historically large polling error in the 2020 election.

0:50.6

The group includes many leading pollsters from across the industry, and they've been dissecting

0:55.2

the accuracy of 2020 polls since before the election was conducted.

0:59.8

Ultimately, the report offers several hypotheses, but states quote, identifying conclusively

1:06.1

why polls overstated the Democratic Republican margin relative to the certified vote appears

1:12.3

to be impossible with available data.

1:15.3

We're going to ask whether that is a good or bad use of polling analysis.

1:19.3

We'll also continue our walk down memory lane with a segment we're calling, where are

...

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