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Do The Betting Markets Have 2024 Right?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

News, Politics

4.620.3K Ratings

🗓️ 4 January 2024

⏱️ 51 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript


The 538 Politics podcast is kicking off the new year with a game of Buy, Sell, Hold. There are a lot of unknowns as we start the year: Who will win the party nominations for president? Will a third party candidate break through? What will come of former president Donald Trump’s legal liability? And ultimately, who will win the White House, the House of Representatives and Senate? There are betting markets for just about all of these unknowns, so Galen asks the crew to make an assessment of the going odds. They also discuss potential wildcards heading into the new year: What issues might motivate voters? How will congressional dysfunction play out? How about October surprises? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Is that your iPhone that you're using?


Yeah. I was going to say you can just put your stand on a bunch of books.


That's how I always end up doing this.


That's what I'm doing.


I actually would love to hear a rundown of like the books people use. This stack I almost don't want to say it because it's too. Well now you have to say it. It's a biography of Eleanor Roosevelt. Secret City which is about like the secret gay history of Washington and a


giant book called the art of Harry Potter. Nice! So all gay bucks.


Yeah, pretty much. Pretty much. Hello and


I'm Gailin Druk and happy New Year.


It's 2024, we are officially in a presidential election year, so buckle up folks.


And we have got a special start of the year edition of the podcast today. We're going to kick things off with a game of buy sell


whole so let me explain there are a lot of unknowns as we start the year who will win the party


nominations will a third party candidate break through


what will come of Trump's legal liability and ultimately who will win the


White House and also the House and Senate.


There are betting markets for just about all of these unknowns.


And so I'm going to ask my colleagues


to make an assessment of the going odds. That will address many of the known unknowns of


2024, but what about the unknown unknowns? What issues might motivate voters this year?


How will congressional dysfunction play out?


What about October surprises?


And will there be threats to democracy?


We're going to dig into some of the wild cards, or possible wild cards of 2024.


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