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The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

December 29th - NFL Odds, Picks and Market Discussion

The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

Adam Chernoff

Football, Sports

4.81.3K Ratings

🗓️ 29 December 2021

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

NFL Odds, Picks and Market Discussion for December 29th. 

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Good morning, everyone, the simple handigap for Wednesday, December 29th.

0:06.1

Thank you for making me a part of your morning.

0:08.8

Three more days to go until 2025 more days to go until week 17 kicks off.

0:16.1

And that day count of five, all of the sudden becoming much more relevant in terms of NFL betting than it has

0:23.9

been up to this point in the season. The first game on the board is Las Vegas on the road at

0:29.1

Indianapolis. There's a lot to talk about in this game based on what happened yesterday.

0:35.9

However, I'm going to start with just a little bit of talking about bookmaking,

0:42.1

how it works, and the misconception that bookmakers fix the lines to take advantage of

0:50.4

betters on the, quote, insider trading that I saw a lot of people referencing yesterday

0:57.2

when this game went on. And the easiest way for me to do this is go to my most basic example

1:04.8

of bookmaking to somebody who's new into betting. And there's going to be like 20 to 30 people on the podcast that listen to this and start

1:14.4

groaning and complaining and that's not how it works and like everyone does when they're

1:19.3

bitching online on Twitter.

1:20.5

The point of what I'm about to explain is just breaking it down in the most simplistic

1:25.7

way that I can. And I'm not like, this is not getting

1:30.1

incredibly detailed. And so, yes, there will be stuff that goes on top of this other layers,

1:35.2

relax. That's for another episode. So the hypothetical that I give is, let's say, you listening to

1:43.4

this podcast, you go to bed tonight and you wake up

1:46.7

in the morning and all of the sudden you're in a hypothetical world where you're a bookmaker

1:51.4

at your local bar, there's no internet, and you have 100 customers that bet. And your job now

1:59.7

for the foreseeable future is to set odds on every NFL game.

2:05.6

So let's pretend that the odds are not up for week 17 yet. Right. So you wake up, you have to go

...

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