Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 28
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 28 July 2020
⏱️ 18 minutes
🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS
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Summary
COVID Health Information
• Cases were down 8.3% from the same day last week, and these two consecutive days of week-over-week decline represent the first two days of such in about eight weeks.
• Testing is up, case growth is dropping, so positivity rate is dropping. All data points have more room to go, though.
• The vaccine candidate from Pfizer/BioNTech have begun stage three trials and are targeting a regulatory review by October. Moderna is also in a large, final-stage trial for their candidate.
• Dr. Francis Collins, the Director of the National Institutes of Health (Dr. Fauci’s boss), has provided some stunningly useful insights in understanding the greater resistance to COVID embedded in the society than we previously thought. T cell resistance based on past exposure to other coronaviruses (sometimes the cause of colds we have all had) is explaining a larger immunity and resistance than previously understood.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.6 | Hello and welcome to today's COVID and markets podcast. This is David Bonson. Thank you for joining us today where we are going to quickly go through the health data |
| 0:24.1 | and then spend a little bit more time actually in the public policy front |
| 0:29.3 | just because everything is heating up as the House and Senate and White House |
| 0:35.0 | delve deeper in their negotiations for a fourth stimulus package. |
| 0:40.2 | Quickly, just in terms of a market summary, the doubt actually ended up dropping 200 points |
| 0:45.1 | today, but the vast majority of that came in the last hour of trading. It was kind of a |
| 0:50.7 | flattish day throughout. And then in the final hour, we kind of traded down and really no particular reason that I'm able to surmise. |
| 0:59.8 | But in terms of the COVID health data and a couple of the things I wanted to share, really the storylines are sort of more of the same. |
| 1:14.5 | Cases were down a 8.3% yesterday from the same day last week. So the two consecutive days of week over week decline in |
| 1:21.8 | cases is the first two days of such in about eight weeks. Testing is definitely way up in case growth on a percentage |
| 1:31.0 | basis is dramatically dropping. And so, of course, mathematically, that means the positivity rate |
| 1:36.7 | is dropping. We were sitting there over 9% just a week or two ago and now we're running in the |
| 1:43.1 | low 7s. |
| 1:49.8 | Bottom line is that, you know, we have a lot of work to do. |
| 1:59.0 | I mean, the case growth is dropping and the hospitalization data has either flatlined or dropped in almost every major market. |
| 2:03.9 | Mortalities have stayed very low, particularly as a percentage of the cases that grew out of June and July. But until we see a substantially lower case growth |
| 2:14.6 | and just existence of cases, I don't see how the narrative in the media is going to be |
| 2:20.2 | able to change. But as far as the utilization of hospital resources, it does appear that perhaps with |
| 2:29.1 | the exception of a few select counties on a national basis and for the most part statewide basis, we're performing |
| 2:35.8 | quite well. And in terms of the awful potentials of just, you know, mortality is increasing |
| 2:44.2 | and getting to that level, all of that talk, of course, that we have heard throughout June |
... |
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