Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 6
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 6 August 2020
⏱️ 14 minutes
🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS
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Summary
The market was pointing down over 100 points in the morning futures this morning, but reversed into positive territory when the weekly initial jobless claims came in at 1.18 million vs. the 1.42 million expected (the lowest weekly claims number since the March lockdowns began). After a grind throughout the day, and this time led by technology, the market closed up 185 points.
COVID Health Information • New cases were down 25% week over week and, once again, all the talk is around what data may be missing with various weather and tech challenges around the country. Testing itself is down 20% and I am now in both camps as to why that is – that the decreased testing is both a reflection of improved conditions (less symptoms means less test demand), and some glitches and delays around weather and capacity, etc.
• One analyst I adore postulated that less people are getting tested because they have seen media reports how long lines and delays to get tested (and get results). I am not sure what to make of that, but I can’t rule it out.
• With a h/t to the reader who turned me on to this, I am shocked that the Clark County, Nevada data (i.e. Las Vegas) is not getting any kind of national attention (okay, I am not actually shocked).
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.6 | Hello and welcome to today's COVID and markets podcast brought to you by the Dividend Cafe. |
| 0:17.7 | This is David Bonson, Chief Investment Officer over here at the Bonson Group, |
| 0:21.6 | and we have closed out Thursday with a 185 point rally in the Dow. It was kind of grinding |
| 0:31.5 | throughout the day and then in the last two hours of trading got a bid to the upside. It was actually |
| 0:36.6 | led by technology, so you did have |
| 0:38.5 | NASDAQ and S&P even doing a little bit better. So a pretty strong week there overall in |
| 0:45.4 | terms of market indices, although tomorrow, Friday is going to be an interesting day because |
| 0:51.5 | you have jobs data that will come for the month of |
| 0:54.5 | July, the BLS report will come tomorrow morning at 530 AM Pacific time and has the potential to be a job, |
| 1:02.7 | excuse me, a market mover. Today, the market was pointing down in the futures about 100 points |
| 1:08.1 | and then as the initial job was claims came, the market reversed to the |
| 1:13.7 | upside. And that was a result of the weekly initial jobless claims number being 1.18 million |
| 1:20.0 | and it was 1.4,2 million expected. So 300 to 350,000 better than expected. Nevertheless, still an over one million print, which is just very high. |
| 1:32.8 | Now, the continuing job claims dropped another, I think it was 800,000. So it was a pretty good day for the jobs data. |
| 1:41.7 | But let's see what the BLS number comes in tomorrow and what market impact |
| 1:47.2 | that has. |
| 1:47.8 | I mean, at this point, everything seems priced so well that you could get some good news and not |
| 1:52.2 | necessarily see a market response. |
| 1:55.0 | I think most likely the next catalyst for markets is something either breaking apart officially or getting done |
| 2:03.4 | officially on the stimulus side. |
| 2:06.1 | Quickly on the COVID health today, new cases were down 25% week over week. |
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