Hello and welcome to the GZero World podcast. This is where you can find extended versions of my show on public television.

I'm Ian Bremmer, and today we are asking, is the United States really on the verge of invading Cuba?

In his second term, President Trump has leaned into a more assertive vision of American power in the Western Hemisphere, what he's called a kind of Donro doctrine from Venezuela to Panama and beyond.

But when it comes to Cuba, the reality is more complicated.

The military invasion is actually highly unlikely.

What's much more plausible is an attempt to force an

economic breakthrough, a deal that opens the island to investment in tourism while delivering

Trump a quick and low-risk win. That strategy comes at a moment of vulnerability for Havana.

The collapse of support from Venezuela, combined with sustained U.S. pressure,

has pushed Cuba's already struggling economy into a tailspin. They've had blackouts and fuel

shortages and widespread disruption to daily life. For the Castro government, some form of economic

opening could be a lifeline. But for Trump, striking that kind of a deal would mean balancing competing pressures at home,

especially from political allies who see any engagement with this Cuban regime as unacceptable

without fundamental political change.

Here to talk about all this and more is Michael Bustamante.

He's historian at the University of Miami and an expert on Cuba and U.S. Cuba relations.

Michael Bustamante, thanks so much for joining us today.

Thanks for having me.

So there's been a lot of chatter about Cuba and some action recently.

What is happening to the Cubans today? If by to the Cubans you mean the Cuban people.

I do in Cuba.

They are living the most difficult period in their memory for most.

...