Covid and Markets - Tuesday September 1
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 1 September 2020
⏱️ 15 minutes
🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS
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Summary
The extraordinary drop in new cases has slowed down, as expected. New cases seem to have flat-lined even as hospitalizations and mortalities continue declining, pointing to the increasingly less symptomatic and lethal nature of COVID cases currently being tested.
Color me confused by analysts and experts who are confused by the low mortality metrics coming out of European countries in their late summer increase of new cases. I would think everyone would have expected the low mortality rates Europe is seeing based on the experience of the U.S. this summer (better treatment, healthier infections, less severe virus, etc.).
The CFA Institute published a provocative article last week from Laurence Siegel (Director of Research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation) and Stephen Sexauer (CIO at the San Diego Employees Retirement Pension) looking at the dangers of COVID that are not specific to COVID (Bastiat’s law of the unseen versus the seen). This chart in particular grabbed me.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.6 | Hello and welcome to today's COVID and markets podcast brought to you by the Dividend Cafe of the Bonson Group. |
| 0:20.8 | Today is Tuesday, September the 1st, and we enter a new month, the final trimester of the year |
| 0:28.6 | in a remarkably different country in a lot of ways than we entered the last trimester. |
| 0:36.9 | You remember when we came into the month of May, |
| 0:41.1 | we were still really at kind of peak levels, maybe a little bit off of peak levels, |
| 0:48.1 | in terms of COVID infections and hospitalizations and daily mortalities, |
| 0:53.1 | throughout the month of April, had been, you know, |
| 0:56.0 | utterly disastrous. |
| 0:57.6 | And it's been adventurous four months, not just in markets, which is my primary focus, |
| 1:03.4 | but it's been really informative, I think, around our country's digestion of the coronavirus. |
| 1:10.7 | And so I'm going to talk about some of that here today and give you our market info. |
| 1:14.5 | And then again, my commitment through this missive and my communication has been also |
| 1:20.7 | cover some of the kind of directly, even if peripheral, still directly connected, |
| 1:26.2 | subjects that touch COVID markets, such as the Fed, |
| 1:29.7 | public policy, housing, and things like that. And I have a few comments on that today as well. |
| 1:34.7 | So the market started the first day of September today, up over 200 points. The percentage |
| 1:41.3 | return in the Dow and the S&P was exactly the same. It's been a little while since we've seen that. |
| 1:46.8 | NASDAQ was up a bit more. |
| 1:50.3 | And some of the markets kind of increase came in the final half hour trading and even more of it in the final hour and a half of trading. |
| 1:58.4 | So you got some buying action later into the day. |
| 2:04.1 | But let me get into some of the COVID stuff. |
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