Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Monday, August 18th, and today we are on Correction Watch, 2025. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. All right, friends, well, after Bitcoin saw new all-time highs last week, traders are watching out

for a correction.

Bitcoin rode a six-week uptrend to reach an all-time high of 124,500 last week, but to some,

this rally is getting a little long in the tooth.

Numerous analysts are looking at the four-year cycle and noticing there's only a few months left before the period where Bitcoin historically tops. In the shorter term, a six-week rally is about all you can typically expect from Bitcoin without a pullback. And looking at the price action this morning, it seems like Bitcoin could be in for some short-term pain. There was a major sell-off on Sunday night, and Bitcoin began Monday below

$115,000 for the first time since the beginning of the month. This is exactly what wrecked capital

expected to see, tweeting on Sunday, historically Bitcoin Price Discovery Uptrend 1 tends to

end between week six and eight of its uptrend, whereas in Price Discovery Uptrend 2, Bitcoin tends

to end its uptrend between week 5 and 7. Week 7 of Price Discovery Uptrend 2 begins tomorrow. So far, this August has been abnormally strong. While we think of summer months as the doldrums, they usually lead to a sketchy August in September. September in particular is the only month where average and median price action has been negative across the past 10 years.

For long-term holders, that usually isn't a big problem and many choose to hold through the pain.

During bull runs, October has historically been the start of some truly insane price action,

garnering the nickname Uptober.

November is actually usually stronger, but nothing beats a strong reversal as the leaves start to turn for the start of fall.

Don CryptoTrades laid out the historical roadmap tweeting, Never in history has Bitcoin seen both a green August and September. We tend to see a quick flush followed by an explosive Q4 in most of the bull market years. Any larger flushes in the next one to two months would be welcomed and could very well be the last larger dip for the Q4 end of the year rally, which we see so often. If not, that's fine too, but I think it would pull forward a bigger high time frame top as well. Whatever happens, October and November are the months to generally be risk on. Obviously, there's no guarantee we see the same thing this year, but there's a pretty consistent track record for those months so far. Looking more broadly,

most market participants aren't quite ready to call it quits on this bull run. Canary Capital CEO Stephen McClurg told CNBC on Friday, I think there's a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin

goes to 140 to 150 range this year before we see another bear market next year. That being said,

he added, I don't like the economic standing at all right now. Mulkirk said that the price action is really

all about the big institutions, with Bitcoin ETFs and treasury companies driving this bull market.

He commented, we're seeing large allocations coming in not just from small institutions,

but from large sovereign wealth funds. We're seeing insurance companies asking questions.

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