Hello and welcome to more or less, the program which tests numerical claims to their limits.

I'm Tim Halford.

I always said statistical accuracy was the new rock and roll, and today I'm proving

that as I speak to you from under a duvet in my bedroom.

When I started calling myself the undercover economist 15 years ago, I didn't think it

would end up being quite such a literal soberkay, but these are the times we live in.

I'm not sure what Radio 4 originally had in mind for this slot, but somehow they decided

that our trademark combination of unashamed nerdiness and, you know, facts might go down

rather well instead.

So here we are with a coronavirus special, and it's an honour to be broadcasting to the

nation.

Statistical national treasure, Professor Sir David Schpiegelhalter, is going to help

us put the risks of Covid-19 into perspective.

We'll try to understand what the ever-tightening restrictions mean for the country's economy,

and a look into a mystery of the coronavirus numbers in Iran.

But first, Henry has emailed more or less at bbc.co.uk to say,

I would have to hear from one of my heroes, David Schpiegelhalter, on the topic of risk

in the context of Covid.

I think there is much to reassure us and common sense to impart.

Henry, your wish is our command.

I spoke to David Schpiegelhalter, the chair of the Winter Centre for Evidence and Risk

Communication at Cambridge University on Monday.

...