Coronavirus: An Analysis Using Complex Dynamic Systems Theory | Yaneer Bar-Yam
Hidden Forces
Demetri Kofinas
4.8 • 1.6K Ratings
🗓️ 19 March 2020
⏱️ 46 minutes
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Summary
In this Special Episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Yaneer Bar-Yam, President of the New England Complex Systems Institute. Professor Bar-Yam studies the unified properties of complex systems as a systematic strategy for answering basic questions about the world. His research is focused both on formalizing complex systems concepts and relating them to everyday problems. In particular, he studies the relationship between observations at different scales, formal properties of descriptions of systems, the relationship of structure and function, the representation of information as a physical quantity, and quantitative properties of the complexity of real systems. Applications have been to physical, biological, and social systems.
He has applied this background to COVID-19 by not only studying the virus, but by actually launching endCoronavirus.org, a website built and maintained by NESCI whose "goal is to minimize the impact of COVID-19 by providing useful data and guidelines for action." Yaneer and his colleagues have put out more alarming numbers than those often cited by public officials in recent weeks and months. According to Yaneer's research team, which has co-faculty, students and affiliates from MIT, Harvard, Brandeis and other universities, "COVID-19 is a rapidly transmitting disease that evolves in 20% of cases to require extended hospitalizations and roughly 2-4% of cases result in death, with risks increasing rapidly for those over 50 years old. It can transmit even with mild symptoms (coughing, sneezing, or elevated temperature) and perhaps before symptoms appear." He believes that reducing the likelihood of transmission requires everyone to reduce their likelihood of contact not only so they aren't infected but also so that they don't transmit the disease to others. If everyone got tested for COVID-19, according to Yaneer, we could temporarily separate the infected from the uninfected, and this would help reduce the spread of the virus and allow for societies to function normally.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Today's episode of Hidden Forces is made possible by listeners like you. |
| 0:04.4 | For more information about this week's episode or for easy access to related programming |
| 0:09.7 | visit our website at hidden Forces. I.O. and subscribe to our free email list. |
| 0:16.4 | If you listen to the show on your Apple Podcast app, remember, you can give us a review. |
| 0:21.5 | Each review helps more people find the show and join our |
| 0:24.9 | amazing community. And with that, please enjoy this week's episode. And the What's up everybody? This is another special episode, I keep calling this episode special because I've gotten so used |
| 0:59.2 | to putting out weekly content with a lot of prep and time to think about the subject to prepare for the guest. |
| 1:08.0 | And I've decided that that's really not feasible anymore, just given what's going on. We're living in the most radical |
| 1:18.4 | period that I've experienced since 9-11, you know, it feels surreal in much the same way that 9-11 did. |
| 1:34.0 | It also feels hopeful, I think, in a way, |
| 1:38.0 | because there's a lot of camaraderie. |
| 1:40.0 | Maybe hopeful is the wrong word. |
| 1:43.6 | You get this sense of camaraderie that you had after 9-11. |
| 1:48.9 | Whenever I speak with anyone, and I'm not talking about friends, I mean in a professional way. There's a level of |
| 1:55.2 | compassion and empathy and concern for the other person that I remember was prevalent after 9-11 and this is a lot what this feels like. |
| 2:07.4 | But it's a difficult thing to try and cover because I like to always feel like I'm providing reliable information. |
| 2:15.0 | And it's difficult for me to vet what's out there |
| 2:19.4 | because there is so much information. So I've decided to just kind of go with it and my guest for this |
| 2:28.6 | episode is Professor Janier Bar Yam. I came across Professor Bar Yam's work on YouTube. He was actually |
| 2:37.8 | introduced to me through a friend who had been following his lectures or had been to one of his lectures because he's very close with |
| 2:46.5 | Nasim Taub, they actually do lectures together and have been releasing videos on YouTube that you can actually watch dealing with COVID-19. |
| 2:57.4 | And Professor Bariam has also created a website. |
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