Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news and analysis.

Good afternoon, today is Tuesday, July 16th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. Our top story so far.

Core retail sales rose more than expected last month, indicating some resilience in the U.S. consumer.

Headline sales were flat in June, better than expectations for a 0.3 percent decline.

Core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, were 0.4 percent, versus the consensus of up 0.1%.

The retail cell's core control group, which feeds into GDP, jumped 0.9%.

Economists at Wells Fargo noted that excluding auto dealers and gas stations, it was the best

month since January 2023, and that means upside risk for Q2 consumer spending.

This is not exactly the sort of moderation in consumer activity that tends to get a warm

reception from financial markets these days, they said. The softening in consumer spending

signals the demand pressure sustaining prices is abating and clearing the path for rate cuts later this year.

Yet, our senses that retail sales may not offer all that much perspective on this issue.

Today's data marked the four-year anniversary of crusting above the pre-pandemic peak.

Retailers have increased their trade by more than a third, 177 billion dollars during that four-year stretch.

But the thing to know is that most of the points were

scored in the first half. More than 83% of the gain in retail sales happened in the

first two years. This morning also brought June figures on import and export prices.

While these numbers are not particularly market moving in and of themselves,

import prices do feed into core PCE,

the Fed's inflation measure of choice.

Export prices fell 0.5% month on month in June,

compared expectations for 0.1% decrease.

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