It's Thursday, September 5th, 2024 from Peach Fish Productions.

It's the gist I Mike Pesca.

Alan Lichtman says Kamala Harris is going to win the presidency.

Yes, you are probably familiar with one of the two proper names mentioned in the preceding

sentence, Alan Licktman, the one you're not familiar with, he's a professor, a history professor,

who possesses a kind of anti-carisma, but definitely a schick that the New York Times finds

charming, or at least wants to put forward as charming, so they cut together

a sumptuous video of the 77-year-old jogging around the track interspersed with his opinion on the presidential race.

It's a race, get it, they're both a kind of race.

To make his presidential predictions,

Alan's model ignores the polls and the pundits.

It hinges on 13 keys that I developed in 1981

with my geophysicist friend Vladimir Kailis Boroc.

It's based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes

before then. Told you he's a nerd. But there are correct nerds, there are

incorrect nerds, and in Lichtman's case a correct for mostly

accidental reasons nerd. Like other prognosticators, let's say Nate Silver or an advisor to a financial firm who wants guidance on who's going to win the election.

They look at economic factors, economic growth, fair enough.

He takes into account some subjective factors like candidate charisma, seems reasonable.

It stands to reason, in fact, in a year when the economy is pretty good, when there are no scandals in the incumbent party,

when the challenger isn't some political demi-god that the incumbent would win.

In years where the opposite's true, the economy's bad, the incumbent party is mired in scandal,

...