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Welcome to Coffee House Shots for Spectators' Daily Politics Podcast.

Theresa May's big vote is tomorrow.

She lost by 230 votes last time.

What will happen this time?

The Prime Minister is holding meetings with senior Brexit years and Downing Street today, and Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General who was

supposed to be negotiating some kind of improvement of a deal, is not in Brussels and

seems to have given up. I'm Fraser Nelson and I'm joined by James Forsyth and Katie Bowles

to discuss. So James, these meetings, they don't bode well, do they?

So the thing that really doesn't bode well is that there at the moment no plans for

Theresa May to go to Brussels. So she will essentially be bringing back the same deal as was

defeated by 230 votes last time round. So whatever happened to Cox's codpiece, as he himself calls his codicil?

I think those negotiations went very badly because the EU has very little incentive to move.

It is, what it is prepared to do is to give kind of legal force to the Tusk Juncker letter.

But I think the view of most MPs are not entirely right, but they feel like

they've already seen that before. Now, these letters would have more legal force than they

previously had, but this is still miles away from a kind of clear exit mechanism from the

backstock, which I think is the kind of minimum ask of Tory Brexiteers and the DUP.

Now, so right now the government is looking down a three-figure defeat if it brought this bill back to the Commons on Tuesday.

And that would be catastrophic for Theresa May.

She would have bought her deal to the Commons twice and it would have lost by three figures.

But she survives catastrophes, doesn't she?

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