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Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots, the Spectator's Daily Politics Podcast.

I'm Cindy Yu, and this is the Sunday Roundup.

The situation on Ukraine's eastern border now appears to many as though it is the calm before the inevitable storm.

In the Sunday Times, the Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has even criticised some Western

actors for establishing a whiff of Munich in the air, a reference to Neville Chamberlain's

infamous negotiations with Nazi Germany in 1938. Trevor Phillips interviewed the Northern Ireland

Secretary Brandon Lewis, who told him that Ukraine was going to have to brace itself.

How likely is a Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Well, I think, as the Defence Secretary has said over this weekend, over the last couple of days,

actually, we have to be realistic about, with Russia having 100,000 troops now, roughly on the

border there, that an imminent incursion by Russia is entirely possible. And that's

why we've changed the travel advice and the advice we've given to UK citizens who are in Ukraine.

Do you think that the reference to Munich is that helpful in a diplomatically sensitive moment?

Well, actually, I think what Ben has outlined there is given an explanation

that people understand, particularly the context of if people have seen the new movie recently,

in the sense of, in the run-up to World War II, of course, there's lots of diplomatic work. People

thought that was progressing, but of course it turned out not to. And I think what the defence

secretary quite rightly is doing is drawing the comparison of being clear that there's a lot of diplomatic work going on.

Obviously, both here and the Foreign Secretary have been in Russia themselves this week.

The Russian state is saying that it is not planning to invade, but when you then have 100,000,

...