Chinese Whispers: why China won't invade Taiwan

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🗓️ 5 June 2023

⏱️ 41 minutes

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Summary

In much of the conversation surrounding China and Taiwan, the question of invasion seems to be a ‘when’ not an ‘if’. But is an invasion really so inevitable?

No one knows for sure, of course, but there are good reasons to think that speculations of a war have been overblown.

For one, the economic links between Taiwan and China mean that their respective interests are not so zero sum. For another, China may well be causing serious damage to itself through an invasion.

Former diplomat Charles Parton has written for the Council on Geostrategy on why Xi Jinping would not take the risk of invading, and he joins the podcast. Also on the episode is Professor William Kirby at Harvard University, who explains the complicated trade links between China and Taiwan.

Ultimately, you must decide for yourselves whether you think an invasion will happen, but I hope that this episode at least presents a different side to the conversation.

Transcript

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0:00.0	The Spectator's prestigious, economic, Innovative of the Year award in partnership with InvestTech
0:05.5	and now in their sixth year. Wherever you're based in the UK, we can't wait to hear about the
0:10.6	success of your business and the impact you're making on the economy and society in 2023.
0:17.0	Applications are now open and will close June 16th. To learn more and apply, please visit spectator.com.
0:23.8	UK forward slash innovator.
0:36.1	Hello and welcome to Chinese Whispers with me, Cindy Yu.
0:39.6	Every episode, I'll be talking to journalists, experts and long-time China watchers
0:43.3	about the latest in Chinese politics, society and more.
0:47.4	There'll be a smattering of history to catch you up on the background knowledge
0:50.1	and some context as well.
0:52.1	How did the Chinese see these issues?
0:55.5	In much of the conversations surrounding China and Taiwan these days, the question of invasion seems
1:01.3	to be a when, not an if. But is an invasion really so inevitable? No one knows for sure, of course,
1:08.3	but there are good reasons to think that speculations of a war have been overblown.
1:13.0	For one, the economic links between Taiwan and China mean that their respective interests are not so zero-sum.
1:19.4	For another, China may well be causing serious damage to itself through an invasion.
1:24.6	This episode of Chinese whispers presents the case for the defence, that invasion
1:28.6	is not, in fact, inevitable. Later on the episode, I'll be joined by Charles Parton, former
1:33.4	British diplomat in China and Taiwan, who contributes to the analysis of numerous foreign policy
1:38.3	and defence think tanks, including Roussi and the Council on Jiao strategy, to understand
1:42.4	why he doesn't think an invasion would happen.
1:45.1	But first, to give you an idea of just how much Taiwan and China are currently linked by trade,
	...

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