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Cato Podcast

China’s Economic Slowdown and Institutional Change

Cato Podcast

Cato Institute

Immigration, News, News Commentary, Peace, 424708, Markets, Government, Libertarian, Policy, Politics, Cato, Defense

4.5979 Ratings

🗓️ 22 November 2017

⏱️ 16 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Economist Charles Calomiris examines the relative strength of the Chinese economy in light of the country's economic slowdown, capital controls, and continued broad central planning.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

This is the Cater Daily Podcast for Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017.

0:05.0

I'm Caleb Brown.

0:07.0

China is regularly viewed as an economic threat to the United States,

0:11.0

but even if you accept the dubious notion that a strong Chinese

0:14.4

economy won't help or even hurts the average American, there are reasons to believe

0:19.2

that China's position is more vulnerable than is typically acknowledged.

0:23.0

Charles Calamiris is a finance and economics professor at Columbia University.

0:27.5

We spoke at the Cato Institute's monetary conference last week.

0:31.0

You see President Trump gushing over Mr. Shee and you see what looks like an

0:40.4

attempt to cozy up to the Chinese and be very, maybe very weak with respect to the Chinese.

0:47.8

On the other hand, there are lots of alternative signals where you could say for once maybe Trump is carrying a big stick and not speaking

1:00.3

very loudly in China that's It's an interesting shift for him.

1:05.2

And some of the concessions the Chinese have been making on this trip

1:09.0

weren't even things that were actively solicited

1:11.4

by the administration.

1:13.4

And so there's a possibility that the Trump administration is doing what I think they should do,

1:19.4

which is believe that they have a strong bargaining position vis-à-vis the Chinese to try to really

1:26.1

liberalize trade and get their geopolitical objectives vis-à-vis North Korea and the China Sea satisfied too.

1:35.3

So my view is China is in a very vulnerable position right now relative to the U.S. and that we're holding a lot of pretty good cards.

1:45.0

As the Chinese economy has slowed, what has been the official response both from a budgetary perspective and a monetary perspective?

1:57.0

Well, it's been to issue debt or to permit or encourage vast amounts of debt to be issued for which

2:06.7

the government has either an explicit or an implicit guarantee.

...

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