I think we're in the mainframe.

Okay, welcome to colonial outcasts.

Today we're going to be talking about a potential assault on Lebanon.

So Netanyahu and his cabinet appear to have decided,

or at least be strongly entertaining the idea that they will attack southern Lebanon.

We're talking about an actual invasion with the presumed objectives,

if they have any defined objectives, of pushing Hezbollah back to the Latani River.

What could possibly go wrong? In short, just about everything imaginable.

Hezbollah is the most powerful non-state military actor in the world.

They are orders of magnitude above Hamas and PIJ in terms of equipment, training, and discipline.

They don't have to operate within the confines of an open-air prison like Gaza.

They have a more hardened and extensive tunnel system.

They could put tens of thousands of boots on the ground tomorrow,

many of which belong to seasoned combat veterans from counter-Islamic

state operations in Syria. They are a professional career soldier force, unlike the 50,000 reservists

that Israel has called up to prepare for a speartip thrust into Lebanon. In simple terms,

if you can't defeat Hamas, who operate under insane restrictions,

there ain't a snowball's chance in hell you can defeat Hezbollah. Israel trains for low-intensity

counter-insurgency actions and policing operations, whereas Hezbollah almost exclusively trains

for high-intensity confrontations against the IDF.

And the stakes, well, Hezbo has made it clear that if Israel opens the front, it won't be able,

sorry, if it opens the front, it won't just be about defending southern Lebanon.

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