Catalyst Watch: Nonfarm Payrolls, Constellation Brands
Wall Street Breakfast
Seeking Alpha
4.1 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 1 April 2023
⏱️ 10 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast, where we cover the top news for investors every morning. |
| 0:07.0 | Thanks for joining us today. I'm Julie Morgan, host of Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's Daily flagship podcast. |
| 0:14.3 | This is our weekly show all about the catalyst for the upcoming week. |
| 0:18.4 | I'm joined by Kim Kahn. |
| 0:19.9 | He's the senior managing news editor at Seeking Alpha. |
| 0:23.7 | I'm also joined by Kevin Curran. |
| 0:25.6 | He's an associate news editor at Seeking Alpha. |
| 0:28.8 | Kim, Kevin, welcome to the show. |
| 0:30.6 | Good to be here. |
| 0:31.4 | Thanks for having us. |
| 0:32.1 | Kim, I understand next week is a big week and it's not |
| 0:36.4 | until the end of the week really. Right, it's a big week and it's a rare week. We've got the jobs report coming up on a Friday as usual. The interesting thing is that it is a market holiday because it's good Friday. So as a market holiday, you know, stock and bottom markets will be closed and you know, if you want to trade the non-formed payrolls number, you can have to trade either on futures or the overseas markets or something like that. |
| 1:04.9 | Probably the dollar is the way most people are going to try and trade it until stock futures |
| 1:10.1 | open on Sunday. It's not a federal holiday, so they still have to put the jobs |
| 1:15.1 | report out on the Friday. So Kim, what are the expectations? What's the |
| 1:19.4 | consensus? The consensus is for payrolls to rise by about 240, 250,000. It's very important because we've got this data-dependent |
| 1:29.5 | Fed now and we've got a May Fed meeting that is pretty much up in the air. |
| 1:34.5 | I mean right in the midst of the banking crisis, Fed Funds futures are pricing in almost |
| 1:39.0 | near certainty that the Fed would be just pause and or was pretty much done with rake heights, but then everything calmed down and now we're back to having a slight edge about 60% chance that they'll hike one more time 25 basis points. But the numbers could change everything about that. There's we got this payrolls report if it comes in, you know, very weak, they could say, okay, well, you know, the Fed has done its job, it's time despite |
| 2:05.4 | pausing and maybe looking at a cut later in the year. We've also got the |
| 2:09.4 | CPI number that will hit and it'll also be a big mover. |
| 2:13.0 | So those two data points are what the Fed heads |
... |
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