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Capitalisn't

Can The Dollar Be Dethroned?, with Ken Rogoff

Capitalisn't

University of Chicago Podcast Network

Stigler Center, Chicago Booth, Socialism, Antitrust, University Of Chicago Podcast Network, Growth, 087667, Policy, Monopoly, Professors, Distortion, Research, Competition, Capitalisnt, Inequality, Promarket, Politics, Policymaking, Special Interest, Economics, Efficiency, Regulations, Chicago, Business, Markets, University Of Chicago, Kate Waldock, Capitalism, Friction, Bethany Mclean, Government, Macroeconomics, News, Education, Waldock, Georgetown, Microeconomics, Luigi Zingales, Zingales, Finance, Ucpn

4.5584 Ratings

🗓️ 24 July 2025

⏱️ 58 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Americans are often told that they benefit from the privilege of the dollar serving as the world's currency. A strong dollar makes imports cheaper, facilitates demand for American companies, and is tied to cheap government borrowing. But what happens when this powerful privilege weakens? What does it even mean for the dollar to be “strong” or “weak” as a medium of exchange and investment? Why should Americans care that the dollar serves as the reserve currency for the world’s central banks? In his new book “Our Dollar, Your Problem,” Ken Rogoff, a Harvard professor and former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, argues that the dollar is past “middle age” and that its global dominance will erode in the coming years. He predicts the dollar will eventually share power with the European Union’s euro and Chinese renminbi in a “tripolar” world. Rogoff joins Bethany and Luigi to discuss why the dollar's shifting dominance matters so much to the United States and what implications this has for the rest of the world’s payment network. He describes how the dollar has come under pressure from multiple directions, both now and in the past. Outside the U.S., these include past and current international challengers, such as the Soviet ruble, the Japanese yen, and the European euro. From within, the current instigators are rising federal debt, increased use of economic sanctions, and growing political dysfunction. The three also discuss if President Donald Trump’s boisterous support for cryptocurrency further undermines the U.S. dollar. Ultimately, they tease out how the dollar has underpinned American economic prowess for the last half century and what the consequences will be for the American economy – and the world at large – if the dollar is dethroned. Read a review of Rogoff’s book by Capitalisn’t team member Matt Lucky in ProMarket: https://www.promarket.org/2025/07/24/what-happens-after-the-dollars-hegemony-ends/

Transcript

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0:00.0

The thing we really care about over the long run is having the dollar be like English, that everybody uses it.

0:08.0

That's what brings our interest rates down on a long-term basis.

0:14.1

I'm Bethany McLean.

0:15.8

Did you ever have a moment of doubt about capitalism and whether greed's a good idea. And I'm Luigi Zengalis.

0:22.4

We have socialism for the very rich, rugged individualism for the poor. And this is Capital

0:28.7

Isn't, a podcast about what is working in capitalism. First of all, tell me, is there some society

0:34.6

you know that doesn't run on greed? And most importantly, what isn't?

0:38.4

We ought to do better by the people that get left behind.

0:41.3

I don't think we should have killed the capital system in the process.

0:45.0

Way back in the 1960s, a French finance minister called the position that the dollar

0:49.9

occupied in the global financial system, America's exorbitant privilege.

0:55.0

Then there is the paraphrase of Churchill. Indeed, it has been said that the dollar is the

1:00.4

worst form of reserve currency except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to

1:05.7

time. That always makes me laugh. I mangled the Churchill quote or rather I plagiarize it and change it.

1:11.7

So in so many contexts. But anyway, so okay, I will admit it, Luigi. In the past, when I've seen

1:16.8

headlines about a strong dollar or a weak dollar, I mostly tune out, unless I'm about to

1:21.2

travel to Europe and buy some shoes, of course. So let me start with a question for you, Luigi.

1:25.6

Why does the strength or weakness of the dollar matter?

1:28.3

What does that quote about exorbitant privilege mean?

1:30.9

So I think that you're mixing two related ideas.

1:34.5

One is whether the dollar is strong in terms of exchange rate vis-à-vis other currency.

1:42.5

So the Argentina-Pezos is relatively overvalue in this moment,

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