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Not Another One

Caerphilly by-election: Is this the death of the Labour Party?

Not Another One

Richards Green Montgomerie Martin

Politics, News, Political, Political Commentary, Prime Minister, General Election, Number 10, Not Another One, Rishi Sunak

4.7566 Ratings

🗓️ 24 October 2025

⏱️ 47 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Labour and the Conservatives together secured only 13 per cent of the vote in the Caerphilly by-election. In what had been a Labour stronghold for a century the governing party was crushed. Does the Plaid Cymru win, with Reform in second place, point to a wider political earthquake?

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome to Not Another One, the podcast with me, Steve Richards, Ian Martin, who's in

0:16.5

Scotland as we speak, Miranda Green and Tim Montgomery.

0:21.9

And we have got a lot to explore because we're meeting in the aftermath of the much

0:27.3

height and arguably highly significant carefilly by-election result, which just to remind,

0:35.5

all of you listening will know this, but just very quickly.

0:39.7

Ply Cumry, 47 plus percent vote.

0:44.3

Reform, 36 percent.

0:46.7

Labor, which dominated this constituency, 11 percent.

0:50.7

The Conservatives 2 percent.

0:53.0

Greens, 1.5, Lib Dems 1.5.

0:56.5

So we are dealing with something very significant.

1:00.6

And I'm just going to ask each of us to reflect our general reaction as to its significance,

1:06.3

and then we can delve much deeper.

1:08.8

Mine is this, that in the end, for all the hype about reform, if you are in a constituency,

1:17.3

which was once traditionally labour, you will coalesce around a left-of-centre party to block reform.

1:25.8

And the contest is which of those so-called progressive forces will people

1:32.3

coalesce around. I think it's bad for reform, even though their percentage vote is on one level

1:38.8

and an extraordinary achievement from nothing, because it shows the will to block reform around

1:48.8

another left-of-centre alternative. So that's my immediate response to the result. There are obviously

1:54.9

huge implications for Labour. But Tim, as reform were in this constituency, Nigel Farage visited several times,

2:06.6

there was an expectation, they might win it. What's your general reaction to this result?

2:12.6

Well, Steve, I've actually jotted down on the back of my cardboard Frosties packet here, 17 observations.

...

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