Hello,

the rubber capitalists, hope you're well.

So we've got the much anticipated non-farm

Heyroll report just came out.

I'm to give you guys all the details you need to know right now let's shoot over to

What will shoot over to zero hedge and see what they're saying. But it's not really the report that surprised me,

or quite frankly, shocked me.

It's the market's reaction to the report and not just the stock market but the Treasury market.

We're on that in just a moment.

Okay, so let's go over to Zero Hedge and get the details to begin with.

We've got June payrolls, miss.

So we had a miss right off the bat,

but the unemployment rate declined.

It gets a little suspicious here, but pulling back from the

Somme recession trigger as wages unexpectedly rise.

So my first takeaway is based on the Sommerole that we've been talking about a lot,

I don't think we're in a recession, at least the way the NBER is going to define it.

Now I think that we're headed for one, and I think the economy is extremely unhealthy

right now, and I think the cycle is going to play out the same way.

My base case really hasn't changed, but I don't

know that we're in one now because I was going back to the Sommerl or a chart of the

Sommerl. I just did that briefly this morning and I couldn't really find a time when it ticked down when you were actually in recession

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