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Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

Bonus episode - The Model Polling Method

Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

Sky News

Politics, News, News Commentary

4.0156 Ratings

🗓️ 14 June 2017

⏱️ 24 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this bonus podcast Sky's Head of Data Harry Carr talks to the man behind YouGov's 'multilevel regression and post-stratification' model which successfully predicted a hung parliament at the 2017 general election. Ben Lauderdale - who's an associate professor at the department of methodology at the London School of Economics and Political Science - explains the methods behind MRP and how it's helped restore faith in opinion polling following a difficult few years. #GE2017 #skynews #polling

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hi, it's Bruce the Butterfly here.

0:02.6

And I'm really high up.

0:04.9

You see, Scottish Power has just been ranked top large energy supplier in the UK for customer service by citizens' advice.

0:12.0

We're reaching new heights of excellence.

0:14.0

Higher than any butterfly's been, that's for sure.

0:16.5

It takes a huge effort to get all the way up here.

0:18.9

There's a whole team of people working their socks off

0:20.9

to reduce call waiting times,

0:22.5

improve email response times, and handle complaints quicker.

0:25.8

But at Scottish power, we're not standing still.

0:28.2

We're going to keep setting standards that are higher

0:30.5

and higher and higher!

0:33.4

For details, go to citizensadvice.org.uk.

0:36.0

Large suppliers include those with a market share of at least 5% in either gas or electricity.

0:47.7

Hello and welcome to a special edition of the All-Out Politics podcast. I'm Harry Carr.

0:52.3

Today I'll be talking to Ben Lauderdale, Associate Professor

0:55.2

in the Department of Methodology at the London School of Economics and Political Science,

0:59.3

and the man behind UGov's MRP model, which successfully predicted the hung parliament in the

1:03.7

2017 general election. Polsters and public opinion experts have taken a lot of flack over the last

1:09.2

few years, some failure and some less so. For Ben, the 2017 general election was a triumph against the odds. When UGov's model

1:16.1

suggested the Conservatives could fail to win a majority, Conservative advisor and former

1:20.3

staffer for President Obama, Jim Messina tweeted that he spent the day laughing at yet another

...

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