Bond Market Tariff Signals and the Outlook for US Growth
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
4 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 17 April 2025
⏱️ 52 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 17th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at Blackrock, talks about signals from the bond market, corporate credit spreads, and whether the market just experienced a tariff tantrum or whether deeper problems lie underneath. Following bond market turmoil triggered by the announcement of broad US levies earlier this month, investors are focusing more on developments in country-specific trade negotiations.
2) Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, brings us into the market open and discusses her outlook for growth in equities and the US economy. President Donald Trump said there was “big progress” in talks to strike a deal for Japan, which stocks responded to positively in pre-market trading ahead of the holiday weekend.
3) Jay Timmons, CEO and President of National Association of Manufacturers, joins to discuss manufacturing regulations and red tape, strengthening the manufacturing workforce, and whether tariffs and other Trump admin policies could actually revitalize manufacturing labor. Manufacturing output increased 5.1% in the first quarter, the most since late 2021, as customers boosted orders before tariffs hikes took effect. Despite the gain, manufacturing faces headwinds from higher material costs, trade policy uncertainty, and tariffs, which may impact production and investment plans this year and next year.
4) Ali Mortell, Director of Research at Blue Rose Research, joins to discuss Blue Rose's presentation that's made waves through Democratic politics, highlighting support President Trump garnered in 2024, how Democrats could claw back some voters, and what is the identity of the Democratic party.
5) Whitney Tilson, former hedge fund manager and NYC Mayoral candidate, discusses his candidacy and policy proposals, how he plans to gain support over Cuomo and Adams, and what the identity of the Democratic party should be. Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman donated $250,000 to a super PAC supporting former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York City's mayoral race after Ackman hosted a fundraiser for Tilson's bid earlier this year.
6) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story Costco's Kirkland brand bringing customers to the beer aisle and a New York Times report on possible signs of life on a distant planet.
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Transcript
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| 1:33.1 | Joining us now from BlackRock, Amanda Leidem. If we are quiet now, why are the markets so distressed? |
| 1:40.8 | Good morning. Thank you for having me. I think what's been puzzling to us is that we've had, in our view, a trimming of the |
| 1:47.0 | left tail risk on the trade policy uncertainty, but we're not completely in the clear in terms |
| 1:53.1 | of the overhang and the potential hit to margins, as you were discussing in the earlier |
| 1:56.8 | segment. |
| 1:58.1 | Credit spreads are wider, but they're not reflecting a sharp downturn in |
| 2:01.8 | growth. As for the yield backdrop, our colleagues in the BlackRock Investment Institute, |
| 2:06.1 | I know you had way on earlier this week, were expecting a steepening of yield curves and a rebuild |
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