meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
Top Traders Unplugged

BO91: Is Trend Following Too Crowded?

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 3 June 2020

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Is Trend Following becoming too crowded?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Maybe final question or second to last question back to the simplest stuff that we do.

0:09.4

Trend following.

0:11.2

What's your view, Robert, on trend following being potentially crowded

0:15.5

and the returns of the strategy decaying or diminishing over time. As we've heard, I mean, you've mentioned

0:22.6

the name, Winton. Winton has been publicly out saying that, that they expect trans following

0:27.1

turns to be weaker going forward than they have been in the past. Would you agree with that,

0:31.7

or is it impossible to tell? Too early to tell? I don't know. I mean, it's definitely too early to tell.

0:39.4

Because we need a lot of data to fit our strategies, because they only exist at the kind

0:44.2

of bare threshold of statistical significance, you know, a few years of poor performance

0:51.0

is certainly not enough to kind of prove one way or the other, or at least

0:56.8

prove with some kind of 95% confidence interval, that the performance really, you know, going

1:03.1

forward is going to be much lower or negative.

1:08.0

There's different ways of looking at this.

1:09.5

One way is to say, well, where do the returns come from?

1:14.2

I'm in sort of the kind of behavioral finance camp.

1:17.0

I think it's sort of a psychological bias that people just don't like the style of

1:22.1

trading where they're taking small losses and holding on for bigger gains.

1:26.8

People like taking profits.

1:28.3

The other thing to look at is, you know, what's the AUM in the sort of trend-falling space versus

1:37.3

the total AUM out there? And, you know, that number fluctuates over time, but it's, I'd say it's probably maybe

1:48.0

10% at most of kind of actively managed money, probably less.

1:54.0

Now, that doesn't mean to say that there are markets where, you know, a bit much more than 10%

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.