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Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance: The Disinflation Scenario

Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg

News, Business, Business News, Investing

3.81.2K Ratings

🗓️ 15 December 2023

⏱️ 31 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Julian Emanuel, Evercore Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, expects the Fed to stay as quiet as possible over the next few months after giving markets the ‘all-clear’. Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group United States Managing Director, discusses the implications of increasing global resistance for supplying aid to Ukraine. Greg Daco, EY Chief Economist, says the economy has “all the right ingredients for a disinflationary environment” in 2024. Meghan Swiber, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Director of US Rates Strategy, says uncertainty around inflation is leading to a reluctance for markets to price-in the Fed’s 2% goal. 

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Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:07.0

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0:16.2

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And context changes how you see things, how you change things, because context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg

0:24.6

dot com to get context. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa Abramowitz along with Tom Keene and Jonathan

0:40.4

Pharaoh. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics,

0:44.5

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0:46.9

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0:49.1

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0:52.3

And always on Bloomberg.com the

0:54.1

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0:56.7

Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI calling for the S&P 500 to end next year at

1:01.4

drum roll 4750 basically where we are now he sees a pull back in the first half that will take the index down to 3970 and then a rally kicking in quote prior to the 20 2024 election based on received recession trough and

1:15.5

inflation falling to the feds 2% target Julian I'm so glad to say is joining

1:20.2

us now Julian you're calling for a pretty big drawdown does that mean that

1:24.9

you're really leaning against what we're seeing right now well actually in

1:28.4

context of of typical drawdowns it isn't really that big, you know, on the order of 15, 16%, which you tend to see in most years,

1:37.9

you didn't see it in 2023, which is why the Vicks is at 12 and we had this you know incredibly great feeling and

1:45.6

obviously we've had a lot of momentum in December and look the message we got

1:51.7

from the Fed was very much an all clear the markets responded in kind

1:58.1

But frankly when you think about it and you go back to July when we had that interim peak at the time of the last hike in fact of the cycle,

...

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