Bitcoin Seasonality Means A Messy September Set Up

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 3 September 2025

⏱️ 13 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Bitcoin just wrapped a volatile Labor Day weekend, with prices dropping 14% from August highs before bouncing slightly above $110K. Analysts debate whether the correction is over, with leverage rebuilding, sentiment turning jittery, and gold surging as a possible leading signal. We dig into Bitcoin’s historical September weakness, why Q3 often stalls out before a Q4 rally, and how whale rotations, global liquidity, and Washington’s packed crypto agenda are shaping the months ahead. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
0:09.3	It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
0:18.3	What's going on, guys? It is Tuesday, September 2nd, and today we are talking Bitcoin seasonality.
0:24.4	Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it,
0:27.8	give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation,
0:31.2	come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly
0:34.8	slash breakdown pod. All right, friends, welcome back from the
0:39.1	Labor Day long weekend. Hopefully you took some time to touch grass or chill out for a bit for the last
0:44.0	weekend of the summer, but if instead you were locked to the charts, you would have seen one of the more
0:48.3	volatile weekends in recent memory. Bitcoin took another huge dive on Friday, adding another
0:53.3	day of losses to a deeply red week.
0:55.6	Saturday saw some brief stabilization giving way to a big round of volatility on Sunday night into Monday morning.
1:01.3	Bitcoin traded to a low near $107,000, but judging from the reaction on crypto-Twitter,
1:06.0	you would have thought to the bottom completely fell out.
1:08.7	Former hedge funder James Levish tweeted,
1:10.6	Stop it, Bitcoin is not going to $50K. Get a hold of yourselves, people. And while that seemed like an overreaction, Bitcoin is now deep into a serious correction. Peak to trough, this has been a 14% drawdown from the highs in mid-August. That is, of course, nothing compared to the regular 30% pullbacks from previous bull runs,
1:28.3	but then again, Bitcoin holders are a very different breed compared to 2017 or 2020.
1:32.9	15% drawdowns are a much bigger deal if you're running institutional capital.
1:36.9	Market structure has also changed a great deal with far less access to insane leverage.
1:41.2	That could suggest the drawdown is pretty much over, with Bobby Schell of
1:44.4	Voltage Cloud commenting, 15 to 20% pullbacks are the new 30% pullback. There was a small recovery
1:50.5	overnight with Bitcoin rising to around 110,000 to begin Tuesday morning, but who knows
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Blockworks, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Blockworks and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.