The next Bitcoin halving is now about two years away.

Meanwhile, the whole discourse around the four-year cycle is only getting worse, not better.

There was always some version of either the halving cycle is still intact and as bullish as ever,

just zoom out, or the cycle is broken, ETFs changed everything,

which means Bitcoin is going up forever and bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. This year, given the US being so pro-cryptial and every other country is kind of following,

we will probably break the four-year cycle.

No surprise that we're not seeing as much of the latter take anymore,

considering Bitcoin has drawn down by nearly half since its all-time high late last year.

So Bitcoin's four-year cycle anchored in in the halving, really does seem to be

as relevant as ever, at least going by the timing of the bear market, and even if functionally speaking,

the harvings these days are more of a rhythmic echo than an actual supply shock, given the block

reward is already so low going into every halving. The reality is that a broad chunk of the

Bitcoin market is now mediated by spot

ETFs in the US and Treasury companies like Strategy, Metaplanet and 21, which means if the

four-year cycle still exists, even though the slash block reward matters less overall, why? Why

does Bitcoin still feel so tied to a pattern that was only really relevant 10 years ago?

Let's see if we can figure it out.

I'm your host David Canales and this is the breakdown.

Let's get to it.

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The first few times around, the halving was brutal.

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