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What's going on, guys? It is Tuesday, November 25th, and today we are talking about Bitcoin's fragile recovery. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. All right, well,

Bitcoin continued its slow and tentative recovery, but is the bottom truly in. Bitcoin traded up to

$89,000 on Monday after an early morning stumble. Price receded a little on Tuesday morning, but seemed

to hold steady at the $87,000 level. Now, Friday might have been the bottom for this drawdown,

but so far the

recovery does not inspire a ton of confidence. Bitcoin crashes typically see a strong bid in a rapid

reversal, especially in the middle of a bull market, but this recovery feels tepid and uncertain.

Vincent Liu, the CIO at Kronos Research, said the current price action, quote,

reads like a post-flush bounce, liquidity pockets shallow,

flow fragmented, and bids probing for stability, all while long horizon holders are accumulating.

Expect consolidation with tight ranges around 85 to 90K, as liquidity is shallow and stops

are being picked off. Rachel Lucas, a crypto analyst at BT markets commented,

Bitcoin is consolidating after its deepest correction of the cycle.

It's holding above 86K, which is constructive short-term, but the structure remains fragile.

There are very few analysts currently willing to call the bottom at this stage, with most preferring

to hedge their options. Even Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes was uncertain, not a normal state for him,

posting on Monday, minor improvements in dollar liquidity, Fed QT stops December 1st, this Wednesday will probably be the last fall on the balance sheet. U.S. banks increase lending in November. We chop below 90K, maybe one more stab down into low 80s, but I think 80K holds. Might start nibbling, but leave the bazooka until the new year. For the Fed watchers, odds of a December cut are now up to 81%, which is starting to get pretty close to a sure thing two weeks out. Hayes doesn't think a rate cut will do much, but is on the lookout for the return of QE or some other Alphabet-Soup liquidity program from the Fed. He wrote, Bitcoin rallied from 16K to 100K and rates were pretty much higher due to the reverse repo decline. Quantity of credit is more important than the price. We could hit an all-time high with Fed funds at 10% if the Fed did unlimited QE at the same time. Now, few are predicting the return of QE in any meaningful amount, but Powell did explain the Fed's framework at the last FOMC meeting. He said that the balance sheet will expand in line with GDP growth, with the goal being to keep it flat in relative terms. With that in mind, hazes on the lookout for a collapse in stocks to trigger emergency measures. Last week, he said, we are playing for more money printing, and for that we need AI tech stocks to crater. So, while it doesn't look like we're getting a V-shaped recovery, many believe the worst is behind us. Charles Edwards of Capriol Fund blamed the entire drawdown on flip-flopping rate expectations. He wrote, we started November at 90% odds for a cut in December, dropped to only 30% and are now back at 80% likelihood of a rate cut. As the market reverts, expected will carry Bitcoin somewhat higher. Swiss block posted, Bitcoin has taken its first real

step towards forming a bottom. The risk-off signal is dropping sharply, which tells us two things.

Selling pressure has eased, and the worst of the capitulation is likely behind us for now.

One big signal to take in this is the drop in Future's open interest. Open interest had

...