Welcome back to Beyond the polls. This week, I'm joined by Focus on the Family Vice President Tim Gagline to talk about his new book. Let's dive him.

Well, the whole world's eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, the Arabian Sea. You define the theater, you know what I'm talking about.

It's the war.

In fact, you can almost say that for the next few weeks, Bill Clinton and James Carville's

famous statement about politics, it's the economy stupid, can be changed to, it's the war

stupid.

The war is something that has not helped Donald Trump so far.

The coals are quite clear that his already low job approval rating is dropping, and that is

surely a result of a war that was not uniformly popular to begin with, has not become more popular with its on-again, off-again

status, and has contributed to significantly higher gasoline prices. Well, at least in my

neighborhood, gasoline prices are down a notch from their high. They are still well over a

gallon higher per gallon than they were before the

war, and for many Americans who don't know why or don't particularly care for why we are

involved in a war with Iran that has having this effect, they're focusing on the dramatic

increase rather than any leveling off or decrease.

And they're not wrong to do so.

So what does this mean for the overall midterms?

Well, right now, if the election were held today, there's a range of thought.

You know, one is I recently released, not a poll that I conducted, but a contoles that an acquaintance were conducted called

a MRP poll, a multi-level regression and post-stratification poll that takes a large sample

of nationally reviewed voters and is able, therefore, to get significant cross tabs on demographic groups and then estimates

results in all 435 House districts based on the district's demographics.

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