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Beyond Brexit

Beyond Brexit S1E19 - Economics special - understanding the impact of Brexit on the UK economy

Beyond Brexit

PwC UK

Government, News

4.836 Ratings

🗓️ 4 January 2019

⏱️ 20 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Host Emily Khan is joined by Mike Jakeman and Barret Kupelian, both Senior Economists at PwC, to discuss how we can expect Brexit to impact the UK economy in 2019, how economic analysis can help businesses prepare, and what the longer term outlook for the economy is as we move into the 2020s.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to our latest Beyond Brexit podcast. I'm Emily Kahn.

0:08.0

One of the areas I'm most often asked about by our clients is the impact of Brexit on the UK economy.

0:13.0

So to help me dive into this today, I'm joined by Mike Jateman, senior economist at

0:18.0

PWC who works on our UK Economic Outlook, and Barrett Capellion, a senior economist within theC who works on our UK economic outlook, and Barrett

0:21.5

Capellian, a senior economist within the firm who's been working on economic impact analysis

0:25.7

for our own contingency planning for Brexit, as well as for our clients.

0:30.6

So, Mike, our most recent UK economic outlook was released in November and focused extensively

0:36.4

on the different Brexit scenarios.

0:37.8

Talk us through what the analysis tells us for 2019.

0:40.8

Sure. Hi, Emily.

0:42.3

So all of our projections, our main scenario, assumes a reasonably smooth Brexit.

0:48.3

By this we mean that a deal has agreed with the EU that allows the UK to leave the union and that there's

0:54.6

some early progress in negotiations on the future trading relationship. Right, okay. This would be

0:59.9

sort of analogous to a parliamentary approval of the withdrawal agreement that Theresa May struck

1:04.4

in November or something similar. Okay. If we get a softer Brexit, which involves keeping

1:09.9

the UK in a customs union permanently,

1:11.6

or a harder one, we'd revise these numbers.

1:15.6

But on the assumption of this reasonably smooth Brexit, I mentioned,

1:19.6

we think that growth in 2019 in the UK is going to pick up a bit,

1:23.6

from about 1.3% in 2018 to 1.6% next year. That is all about the return of business investment to growth.

1:32.3

Right, okay.

1:33.3

So we've had three quarters of contraction in business investment so far in 2018.

...

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