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The Compound and Friends

Barry Ritholtz on the Psychology of Stock Market Corrections

The Compound and Friends

Josh Brown

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.72.2K Ratings

🗓️ 29 April 2019

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Barry Ritholtz wonders why everyone is still so surprised every time the stock market has a correction. The psychology surrounding stock-market declines and recoveries is fascinating. Anytime markets retreat even a little bit, the noise surrounding the event begins to swell. Given how frequently markets jink and turn, you might expect people would be used to the occasional plunge by now. Full transcript of Barry's rap on the subject available here: https://ritholtz.com/2019/04/corrections-declines/ You can read more about Brendan’s take on behavioral coaching at his blog Your Brain on Stocks: https://yourbrainonstocks.com/i-need-behavioral-coaching-said-no-one-ever/ Enable our Alexa skill here - "Alexa, play the Compound show!" https://www.amazon.com/Ritholtz-Wealth-Management-LLC-Compound/dp/B07P777QBZ Talk to us about your portfolio or financial plan here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/ Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice just for you or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Please see this 3,000 word terms & conditions disclaimer if you seriously need this spelled out for you. https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

The psychology surrounding stock market declines and recoveries is fascinating.

0:06.0

Anytime markets retreat even a little bit, the noise surrounding the event begins to swell.

0:13.2

Given how frequently markets jink in turn,

0:15.9

you might expect people to be used to the occasional plunge by now.

0:20.8

Alas, that is simply not the way human emotions and memory works.

0:26.8

As of recently, the Standard and Core 500 was mere points away from an all-time high.

0:34.1

This was set in September of 2018.

0:37.4

Lest we forget, a 20% drop from those highs

0:41.8

and a 25% move brought us very close to that peak.

0:47.0

Neither the angst of the decline nor the bliss of the recovery are in any sense of the word rational.

0:53.9

As we close in on that prior mark, it might be helpful to consider some details on what

0:59.4

pullbacks corrections and bare markets actually look like and why we as a species deal with them so

1:07.9

poorly.

1:09.5

Let's start with an important caveat.

1:12.2

The terms we all use, drawdowns, corrections, pullbacks, retracements, recoveries,

1:19.9

these are just made-up words without any formal definitions.

1:24.4

Pundets and traders and media pretty much started using these terms

1:30.2

because it was very helpful to try and explain things that were very hard to explain.

1:37.0

The convention is that a 5% move down is a pullback, a 10 percent drop is a correction, and 20 percent is a

1:47.8

bare market. These categories have no real meaning or statistical significance.

1:54.0

Let's look at that 5%.

1:56.0

On average, markets fall 5% a couple of times each year.

...

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